Scenario Planning toward Climate Change Adaptation - ALC3194 - Course Resources

Presentation PDFs

  • Module 1 - What Is Scenario Planning and When Might I Use It?
  • Module 2 - What Is Your Problem… (or is it a decision opportunity)?
  • Module 3 - Can Scenario-Planning Help?
  • Module 4 - Building Scenarios Exercise
  • Module 4a - Building and Refining Scenarios: Identifying Drivers
  • Module 4b - Building and Refining Scenarios: Selecting Drivers and Logics
  • Module 4C - Building and Refining Scenarios: Developing Detailed Scenarios
  • Module 5 - Creating Quantitative Scenarios from Qualitative
  • Module 7 - Applying Scenarios
  • Module 8 - Why Structured Decision Making?
  • Module 9 - Organizing Options and Developing Decision Time Lines
  • Module 10 - Evaluating the Consequences of Alternatives—Bringing Scenario Planning Outputs into Decision Analysis
  • Module 11 - Integrating Structured Decision Making with Scenario Planning
  • Module 12 - What’s Next: Iteration and Other Options


  • Biggs et al. 2010 "Preparing for the future: teaching scenario planning at the graduate level"
  • Bishop et al. 2007 "Emerald Article: The current state of scenario development: an overview of
  • Dermawan et al. 2012 "Testing a multi-scale scenario approach for smallholder tree plantations in
    Indonesia and Vietnam"
  • Game et al. 2013 "Six Common Mistakes in Conservation Priority Setting"
  • Mahmoud et al. 2009 “A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making” 
  • Nassauer et al. 2004 "Using normative scenarios in landscape ecology"
  • Peterson et al. 2003 “Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World” 
  • Ratcliffe et al. 2002 "Scenario planning: strategic interviews and conversations
  • Runting et al. 2012 "Does more mean less? The value of information for conservation planning under sea level rise"
  • Weeks et al. 2011 “Climate change scenario planning: A tool for managing parks into uncertain futures” 
  • Walker et al. 2012 “Drivers, ‘Slow’ Variables, ‘Fast’ Variables, Shocks and Resilience”
  • Zurek Henrichs et al. 2007 "Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international
    environmental assessments"



  • None available at this time.